ANALYSIS: What lurks in the Horizon down the stretch

(2/11/03)

With just under three weeks left in the regular season, the Horizon League contenders and pretenders are starting to take shape. Butler, the marked team for the past few years, has that label again, especially after finishing off a sweep of UIC last Saturday. UIC and Wisconsin-Milwaukee play a critical game Thursday. The winner likely nabs the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament with some hopes for the top seed.

The following is a look at each of the teams as they enter the stretch run (with records and remaining conference schedule) Through games of Feb. 10.:

BUTLER BULLDOGS (18-3, 8-1)

Home: Wright State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Road: Loyola, Detroit, Youngstown State, Cleveland State

Analysis: The Bulldogs are in the driver’s seat, but still have seven league games left, including a tough two-game road stretch this week with Loyola and Detroit. The Ramblers beat the Bulldogs at Gentile Center last year and Loyola took Butler to overtime at Hinkle this season. Loyola has the knack of matching up well with the Bulldogs, while the Titans are still dangerous at home. The No. 1 seed could come down to a March 1 showdown at Hinkle with UWM. The Bulldogs would love the No. 1 seed, because they would avoid having to play both UIC and UWM at the Horizon League tournament. Their sweep of UIC is an important tiebreaker.

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE PANTHERS (19-5, 10-2)

Home: UIC

Road: Youngstown State, Wright State, Butler

Analysis: UWM has just one home game left, and it is a biggie, as UIC comes to town Thursday. The Flames defeated the Panthers 102-92 in January, and if the Flames win again, they will have the inside track on the No. 2 seed for the conference tournament. UWM needs to defend its home court one final time—if it does, UWM will have a two-game advantage on UIC. UWM also holds key tiebreakers with the Flames in that it has defeated Butler once already (while UIC lost both meetings with the Bulldogs) and it has swept Detroit (UIC managed a split with the Titans). UWM can still win the league outright with a win at Butler on March 1.

UIC FLAMES (15-6, 9-3)

Home: Youngstown State

Road: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Cleveland State, Loyola

Analysis: Thursday’s game with Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a must-win for the Flames. A victory gives UIC a critical tiebreaker with the Panthers for seeding purposes at the league tournament. For any hope at first place, UIC must hope for some help, otherwise second or third is more likely. A third-place finish would put the Flames automatically into the second round, but would be potentially fatal, because UWM (if it doesn’t catch Butler) would be waiting in the next day’s semifinals with an entire week’s rest—not a promising scenario for the Flames. The UWM game definitely goes a long way toward determining UIC’s seed.

DETROIT TITANS (12-9, 6-5)

Home: Wright State, Butler, Youngstown State, Cleveland State

Road: Loyola

Analysis: Looking at the remaining schedule, the Titans appear to have fourth place and a first-round home game locked up. If they can sweep the five games, including tough games with Butler and Loyola, third place is a possibility if UIC falters. Coach Perry Watson’s club could be a spoiler yet.

LOYOLA RAMBLERS (10-14, 5-6)

Home: Butler, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Detroit, UIC

Road: Cleveland State

Analysis: The Ramblers are 6-1 at home and finish out the regular season with four out of five at home. Three of the home games feature teams ahead of the Ramblers in the standings. If the Ramblers can beat Butler and Detroit, they could get the No. 4 seed. In all likelihood, Loyola should get at least the No. 5 seed and a first-round home game.

YOUNGSTOWN STATE PENGUINS (8-13, 4-6)

Home: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Butler

Road: Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Detroit, UIC

Analysis: The Penguins currently sit in sixth place, but that spot is tenuous right now. With only two home games left (against the league’s top two teams), YSU’s chances of hosting a first-round game seem bleak. If they can pull off an upset of either Butler or UWM and grab at least one road win, sixth place could be theirs.

WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY PHOENIX (8-16, 3-9)

Home: Youngstown State

Road: Loyola, Butler, Wright State

Analysis: The forecast for a first-round home game looks troublesome. UWGB must beat Youngstown State at home and likely hope for YSU to go winless the rest of the way.

CLEVELAND STATE (7-16, 2-8)

Home: Youngstown State, UIC, Loyola, Butler

Away: Wright State

Analysis: The good news for the Vikings is that they have four home games and a chance to move up. The bad news is that the team has seemingly quit on coach Rollie Massimino, even at home. If they can show some life, sixth place isn’t out of the question, but it’s not likely.

WRIGHT STATE (8-13, 2-9)

Home: Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wisconsin-Green Bay

Away: Detroit, Butler

Analysis: Despite their current last place standing, it appears that the Raiders have the best chance of making a move among the bottom four clubs. While the two road games are very tough, the home games should be winnable. UWM’s frenetic pace does present a problem for the Raiders’ lack of depth, though.